Supporters of gay marriage have said that a loss in California would set their efforts back a generation.
The Knights of Columbus have just released a new poll. The group, FYI, supports Proposition 8.
Marriage referendum leads 52% to 43% among likely California voters
Many “no voters” could change votes based on possible effects of 8′s failure
By the Knights of Columbus
(NEW HAVEN, CT) — A new poll of California voters shows Proposition 8, a
proposed constitutional amendment that would reserve marriage for opposite-
sex couples, has a 9 percentage point lead among likely voters, 52% to 43%.
The poll was conducted for the Knights of Columbus by the Marist College
Institute of Public Opinion between September 28 and October 5, 2008.
The survey shows that Proposition 8 has majority support among men (53%),
women (51%), whites (51%), Latinos (57%), those who are married (59%)
and those age 45 and older (59%). Those opposed include likely voters under
age 45 (54% opposed) and those who are not married (54% opposed).
The poll also shows that Proposition 8 leads in every region of California
except the Bay Area, where 58% are opposed.
52% of likely California voters believe the state Supreme Court was wrong to
have overturned the 2000 referendum in which voters approved reserving
marriage for opposite-sex couples, and 72% believe the decision should be
left to the voters.
Poll respondents were presented with several arguments and asked whether
each one would make them more or less likely to vote for Proposition 8. A
majority (58%) were more likely to favor Proposition 8 when reminded that if
it passes, same-sex couples will still be able to form civil unions in California.
More than half of those describing themselves as opponents of Proposition 8
said they were more likely to shift from opposing to favoring the referendum
because of this argument.
Approximately one third of those voting “no” on 8 – and a significant number
of undecided voters – would be more likely to vote yes if the proposition’s
failure could compromise the tax status of religious schools or if children in
public schools would be taught that marriage was a relationship “between any
Nearly half (49%) of likely voters believe that same-sex marriage should not
be law if legalizing it would place clergy at risk for lawsuits or threatens the
tax-exempt status of religious institutions. And 79% of all likely voters
believe that if Proposition 8 fails, clergy should not be required to perform
same-sex marriages if it violates their religious convictions.
Full details of the poll results are available upon request and will be posted at
www.kofc.org at noon EDT today.