Loading ...Mormons will pass Methodists in U.S.
flockwoodThe Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will become the nation’s third largest religious body in about a decade, if current trends continue.
According to the 2009 Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches, there were 7,931,733 United Methodists in the U.S. in 2007 and 5,873,408 Latter-day Saints (also known as Mormons.)
The LDS church is growing at an annual rate of 1.63 percent, the yearbook states. The Methodists are shrinking at an average rate of 0.8 percent.
I’ve run the math and, if I’m doing it right, it appears that Mormons will surpass Methodists in the year 2020.
This assumes that the Methodist church keeps shrinking [as it has each year for decades] and that the Mormon church keeps growing at a constant rate [the rate fluctuates somewhat from year to year. In 2006, for example, it grew 1.56 percent and in 2005, it grew 1.63 percent.]
To see the Yearbook’s numbers, click here.
Minor shifts could accelerate or decelerate the shift, but it’s hard to imagine it not occurring sometime in the next 20 years.
March 20th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I ran a quick spreadsheet on it, and based on each denomination continuing on in the same trend, that is, the Methodists losing .8% each year, and the Mormons gaining 1.63% each year, I come out with the numbers crossing at 2022. The question, of course, is whether the trends will continue.
In the shorter term, it looks like the Assemblies of God (currently No. 10 on the list) will bypass the Presbyterian Church (USA), this year’s ninth largest denomination not in ten years, but next year, if the trend continues.
In the long term, though, these numbers would mean that in another hundred years or so, nearly all of the mainstream denominations (including my own Episcopal Church) will pretty well be dead. That’s why I tend to think that they won’t keep dropping forever. At some point, the mainstream denominations will shrink until they are limited to a small central core of believers, which will probably not shrink further.
March 20th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
I suspect that birth rates are much lower among people in mainstream denominations than among LDS and among fundamentalists such as Assemblies of God. People usually jump to the conclusion that mainstream denominations are physically losing members who cross the street to join a fundamentalist church. Actually, I suspect that differential birth rates account for much of the shrinkage or gains.
March 25th, 2009 at 8:52 pm
I wonder how accurate your statistics are regarding Arkansas’ largest demoninations. I notice that Mormons don’t appear in the top ten. However, I also know that there are approximinately 26,000 Mormons in Arkansas spread throughout 56 congregations. The greatest growth has occurred where population gains have exceeded the rest of the state: Northwest Arkansas. There have been at least five new Mormon congregations added in Benton and Washington counties.
April 2nd, 2009 at 10:06 am
Further research indicates that there are currently 60 LDS (Mormon) congregations throughout Arkansas–April 2009. The “average” congregation has about 450 members. So it appears there may be 27,000 Mormons in Arkansas. Latest official statistics from lds.org show 25,296 Arkansas members at the close of 2007.
December 26th, 2009 at 10:31 am
One reason for growth in Mormonism is the women are turned into ‘human baby factories’ at a very young age. Here in northern Utah it’s quite typical to see Mormon couples in their early 20s with 5 kids. The legal age for marriage here is 14 (it was just raised from 13).The LDS Church also ‘cooks’ their membership numbers, by not removing the names of former members when they leave the church.