It’s hard to tell whether bishop-elect Kevin G. Thew Forrester will receive consent to join the House of Bishops. But there are signs that he is facing a real battle. He would be the first bishop-elect rejected on theological grounds since 1875.

If the same bishops who backed Gene Robinson in 2003 backed Thew Forrester in 2009, the Michigander would win in a landslide. After all, Robinson won 63-42 in the House of Bishops, with two bishops not voting. And many of those anti-Robinson bishops have left the Episcopal Church, in some instances attempting to take their entire diocese with them.

But an analysis of the consent votes thus far suggests Thew Forrester’s election may be in jeopardy — even with the bishops of San Joaquin, Pittsburgh, Fort Worth and Quincy out of the picture.

Here’s why: The bishops of Hawaii, Kentucky, Arkansas, Olympia and Bethlehem all voted for Robinson in 2003. All five have voted against Thew Forrester in 2009. [This could be because there are new people holding these posts in several instances. Or it may suggest that Thew Forrester's support is weaker than Robinson's.]

I’m not aware of any bishops who opposed Robinson in 2003 who are supporting Thew Forrester in 2009. They may very well exist, but it’s hard to find out because the Episcopal News Service and the presiding bishop aren’t releasing any tallies.

These figures suggest that this is not strictly a liberal-conservative issue. If it were, the outcome would not be in doubt. Nor is it a split between those who favor full inclusion for gays in ordained ministry and those who oppose it.

There are a few wild cards that could impact the outcome. Among them — Episcopal bishops from outside the U.S. In 2003, they voted overwhelmingly against Robinson. If they vote overwhelmingly against Thew Forrester, he will be hard-pressed to gain consent.

It’s hard, logistically, for journalists to track down bishops and standing committees — and get timely responses — in 110 dioceses. My experience is that most bishops are willing to say how they voted, once you get a hold of them. But these are busy, busy people and it’s hard and time consuming to track them all down.

If you hear of a bishop or a standing committee voting to give or withhold consent in your diocese, please drop me an e-mail and let me know, so that I can post it.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 at 8:51 pm and is filed under Religion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.